Back on February 4th, 2011 I posted the following:
Over at New Platz Journal, he has a short post on the situation in Egypt. Here’s a quote: “Egypt? There’s no telling how that will turn out.”
I like his writing, but in this case, I beg to differ. I think lots of people know how it’s going to turn out. As soon as the demonstrations began, there was looting and arson. Now it is clear that Mubarak is planning to hold power by force, so there will be street fights, and one of two things will happen.
1. The army will use enough force to regain control and the situation will simmer like a pressure cooker with a stuck valve until some future explosion when Mubarak will be deposed.
2. The army will side with the demonstrators now and Mubarak will fall immediately.
When he does fall the Muslim Brotherhood will consolidate power and Egypt will join the other 14th century theocracies in the region. Along the way there will be a lot of blood. It is already starting, but that how I predict it will turn out.
So now Egypt has had an election and here is the outcome. Is anyone surprised? And where does it lead? Here’s my next predictions:
We can check back in a couple of years and see how that whole Arab Spring thing worked out for them.